Post by Murph on Apr 25, 2024 7:38:20 GMT -6
Hezbollah’s credibility dilemma amid escalation
Hezbollah is trying to save face 201 days into the conflict with Israel. Hezbollah joined in the Hamas attacks after October 7, essentially trying to open a limited two-front war with Israel. This has now stretched on longer than Hezbollah had likely anticipated. The Iranian-backed terrorist group has lost hundreds of its fighters, many of whom are difficult to replace.
The group has a large arsenal of rockets, missiles, and drones. However, Hezbollah is also “too big to fail” in the Iranian proxy context. Iran cannot afford to bring it into the conflict, lest it be destroyed. On the other hand, Iran wants to keep it like a sword of Damacles – hanging forever over Israel, threatening, but not falling on Israel.
This presents a dilemma. Unleash Hezbollah, and it will have shot its bolt. But if Iran keeps Hezbollah there, it will forever wait and engage in limited war games. This is likely in Iran’s interest. It wants to change the equation with Israel. It wants to forever attack Israel with impunity from multiple fronts. It aims to slowly weaken Israel.
www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hezbollah-s-credibility-dilemma-amid-escalation/ar-AA1nAm9M?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=ffb58b2349d440b3cd47b4137e04971d&ei=39